The Global Markets Group, Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited, 'revealed' the results of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by the Bank of Thailand (BOT), which voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.75%, in line with the market's previous expectations.

Ms.Roong Sanguanruang,, Global Markets Business Promotion Department, Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited, MPC, revealed that the Thai economy in the first half of 2025 expanded better than previously estimated due to the acceleration of exports. However, the Thai economy is likely to expand at a slower pace in the next phase due to the impact of the US import tax policy and geopolitical risks, as well as domestic factors.

The Thai economy in 2025 and 2026 is likely to expand by 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The estimates do not include political issues. Private consumption is likely to slow down. In line with the declining income and confidence trends, the BOT has revised down its forecast for the number of tourists this year to 35 million, despite tourist revenue expanding from higher spending per capita.

The baht was stable at around 32.60 baht/dollar after the MPC announced it would maintain the interest rate. In its statement, the MPC stated that the baht appreciated slightly in line with regional currencies.

The next MPC meeting will be held on August 13, 2025. The MPC’s statement today showed a cautious tone and allowed interest rates to continue supporting the economy. At today’s meeting, most MPC members agreed to hold the interest rate, emphasizing the timing and effectiveness of monetary policy amid high uncertainty and limited policy space, while one member voted for a rate cut.

Krungsri Global Markets still expects at least one rate cut in the second half of 2025, given the bleak growth outlook amid a variety of economic drags.

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