BAAC is responding to the Cabinet's energy conservation policy by offering special interest rate loans to support energy conservation in the agricultural sector and mitigate the impact on national energy security. These loans are available through agricultural technology and machinery (Smart Tech) loans and the BCG Model loans, helping farmers reduce costs and upgrade production using clean energy.

Mr. Chatchai Sirilai, Manager of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), revealed that following the Cabinet's resolution declaring an energy emergency and requesting cooperation from all sectors to reduce energy consumption due to the conflict in the Middle East, a major oil producer and exporter, which has caused global energy uncertainty, BAAC is ready to provide special interest rate loans to support energy conservation in the agricultural sector and reduce the impact on national energy security. This aims to create energy sustainability in the agricultural sector according to the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) sustainable development approach, through loans for agricultural technology and machinery (Smart Tech), leading to increased competitiveness and sustainable income for entrepreneurs. The maximum loan repayment period is 10 years from the loan date, and the BCG Model loan program includes:

Bio Economy Credit, Circular Economy Credit, and Green Credit. Special interest rates are offered for certified customers. For working capital loans, the repayment period is up to 12 months, and for investment loans, up to 18 months. For more information and inquiries, please contact any BAAC branch nationwide or Call Center at 02 555 0555 (Other conditions apply as determined by the bank).

In addition, BAAC has implemented energy reduction measures to enhance national energy security within the organization, divided into two areas: 1) Electricity saving measures, including: using stairs instead of elevators (promoting the use of stairs to reduce unnecessary elevator use); adjusting dress code (reducing suits, loosening ties, wearing short-sleeved shirts, and wearing light, breathable clothing to reduce air conditioner strain); managing electrical outlets by unplugging all appliances when not in use and using energy-saving mode; and adjusting air conditioner temperatures. These measures include: 1) Setting air conditioners to 26 degrees Celsius and turning them off 30 minutes before the end of the workday;

Turning off computer screens by turning them off or setting an automatic shut-off timer when not in front of the screen for extended periods; and turning off lights and unnecessary electrical appliances immediately after use. 2) Fuel conservation measures, including working from home by adjusting work schedules to suit specific job functions without affecting customer service; planning travel by only traveling necessary to reduce fuel consumption; using carpooling and public transportation by promoting ride-sharing; and conducting meetings via video conferencing by encouraging online meetings instead of attending in-person meetings.

The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) joins the energy conservation campaign and invites all Thai citizens to reduce unnecessary energy consumption to help mitigate the impact of the situation and contribute to sustainable national energy security.

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Mr. Burin Adulwattana, KResearch Managing Director and Chief Economist, said that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing a sharp surge in energy prices, particularly following the closure of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is expected to trigger a chain reaction of impacts, ranging from shortages of raw materials in the petrochemical industry to heightened pressure on global food prices in the period ahead. Additionally, the situation has significantly affected trade and air transportation in the region, resulting in fewer flight operations and higher travel costs. On the financial front, the strengthening of the US dollar against Asian currencies, especially for Thailand, which relies heavily on energy imports, will directly affect the capital market, the Thai Baht, and both the global and Thai GDP growth. At the same time, inflation is accelerating, increasing the risk of stagflation.

Ms. Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said that Thailand’s economy could decline by 0.2–0.7 percent. This projection is based on the assumption that tensions involving Iran may be prolonged and that the Strait of Hormuz – an essential and vulnerable global energy transit point – could be disrupted for 1-3 months. Under this scenario, global crude oil prices are expected to remain above USD 100 per barrel during that period, with the annual average for 2026 projected at USD 75–90 per barrel. In a worst-case scenario, if global crude oil prices remain above USD 130 per barrel for more than three months, Thailand’s headline inflation could exceed the upper bound of the BOT’s 3 percent inflation target range, with 2026 GDP projected to record stagnant growth.

Dr. Rujipun Assarut, KResearch Assistant Managing Director, elaborated on the implications for Thailand’s exports, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, which are key contributors to total exports. The Middle East accounts for approximately 20 percent of Thailand’s total automobile export volume, with pickup trucks representing about 60 percent of that share. Shipments to the region are expected to decline by roughly 15,000 units per month. Combined with factors such as Mexico’s tariff hikes on automobiles, intensified competition from Chinese vehicles, and stricter environmental standards among trading partners, Thailand’s total automobile exports are projected to contract by around 8.1 percent in 2026. Additionally, the conflict involving Iran is expected to drive up production costs for Thailand’s electronics industry, particularly for raw materials and chemicals, which account for approximately one-quarter of total costs, while also reducing global IT spending growth by around 1 percent compared to a non-war scenario. However, worldwide investment in AI and data centers may continue to support Thai electronics exports, leading to an estimated growth of 11.5 percent in 2026, slowing from 38.3 percent in the previous year.

Ms. Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, stated that the conflict in the Middle East is projected to hurt Thailand’s tourism sector. The number of long-haul tourists is expected to decline by more than one million from the original annual forecast, representing a loss of approximately Baht 80 billion for tourism-related businesses. Furthermore, SMEs that rely heavily on energy, logistics, fertilizers, and plastics — such as those in transport, manufacturing, fisheries, agriculture, and restaurants — may be significantly affected by rising costs and narrowing profit margins.

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