'Investors' to Deal With Risk|
CHINA vs U.S.A. Trade War
TMB Analytics 'point out' possible future NPL crisis in China. The tools are limited. Compared to Tom Yum Kung 'Suggestions' for entrepreneurs and investors Prepare to take risks in the days ahead.
Mr. Naris Sathapoldecha, TMB Analytics's chief executive, said after the global financial crisis that Lehman Brothers had collapsed over the past 10 years, This is due to the fact that investors lack understanding of the risk of their investment. At that time, debt-laden mortgages or mortgages-backed Securities had a huge impact on the US economy. GDP contracted by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Crisis While US stock market prices have fallen by more than 40% in just five months, then Thailand is also affected. In particular, the stock market has shrunk by more than 40% in just one month, prompting many to start talking about possible future events, such as the Goldman Sachs Investment Bank. The crisis began to signal.
The timing and the factors that will cause the crisis will be difficult to identify. But one can not deny that one of the world is facing a worrying factor. As a result of the use of monetary policy relax. Long-term policy interest rates and liquidity inflows through the QE program have led to high indebtedness in virtually every country. The IMF's report on global financial stability suggests that by 2016 debt to GDP ratio Worldwide debt is at 260%, with most debt owed to governments and non-financial corporations. The upward trend in world interest rates may have an impact on the ability to repay. Especially the debts of non-financial corporations.
And more worrying is the debt of non-financial corporations from China. From 2006 to 2016, China's debt increased by more than $ 14.4 trillion. After the Chinese government tried to reduce debt or deleverage, the default was increased. In addition, the impact of the US-led trade war with China will be further exacerbated. Debt problems in China are one of the factors that are quite worrying. But the severity of this crisis TMB Analytics is not expected to be as serious as the crisis in 2008.
Due to lessons from the crisis, financial institutions are prepared to take better risks. The regulator has strict rules and regulations. This is consistent with Goldman Sachs's view that the crisis is only a slowdown in asset prices. The price of assets contracted sharply.
However, the impact of this slowdown will not be severe, but will widen the gap in wealth. It's not just Thailand that has a disagreement. But many countries around the world have encountered these problems as well. According to the World Wealth Report published by Credit Suisse, almost half of the world's assets are held by a population of only 1%. This severe dislocation can lead to other social problems.
In addition, Policy Space is not as critical as it was before. Especially monetary policy. Considering the 2008 crisis, the Fed cut the policy rate from 5.25% to 0.25%, while the BoT cut the policy rate from 5% to 1.25% to help stimulate the economy. Currently, the Fed is expected to be 2.5% and 1.75% at the end of this year, so the impact of the crisis will not be as severe. But the tools to cope with these effects are also limited.
For Thailand, we do not see signs of an economic crisis. But it can not be denied that if the crisis with other countries. As a result, both operators and investors should be prepared to cope with future risks.
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